The odds are small but your saying there is a chance…
Yes, this is what I am saying. If all the ping balls align perfectly, the Philadelphia 76ers could walk away with the number 1 pick in this years NBA Draft. How is something like this possible? Lets look at the odds from all non playoff teams this year. The balls will be sorted tonight, and the teams with the best chance are listed below.
The Sixers via Sam Hinke have a 4.0 % chance of getting a top pick and a 1.1% chance of drafting number 1 overall. Again, the chance is slim. More importantly, if the pick falls between 2 and 5 it goes to the Celtics, because of the Fultz trade. If it is number 1 or 6-10 it belongs to the Sixers. So like, I introduced, the chance is small but it is there.
Lets say #1 happens, whats the chance the Sixers use it?
As a betting man, and now that it is soon to be legal in Jersey, I say slim. Let’s first take a look at the prospects, shall we, I am not a scout, and I am not high on College Basketball other then tournament time, so I will not call myself an expert. Here is what the scouts have as top ranked prospects. Among the experts, the top 4 seem to remain chalk across all boards, here is a list of roughly the top 30.
As we stated in our 3 part series, over the past several weeks, the Sixers problems are the wing positions. Should you get that number 1 pick in the draft, trading it for assets, such as future picks, would be ideal. What better way to honor Hinkie, then to pull a Hinkie and set yourself up for the future. This team is close and it is a much better option to sign a proven free agent in the off season, then take a chance with a pick. That is what I would do, if I was running the show. The chance is slim however, so I do not see the number 1 pick option, being viable. What would really rub my ass though is if the Laker pick falls between 2 and 5 goes to the Celtics. That would really rub my crawl the wrong way.
It seems they already took us to the woodshed in the deal for Fultz, and got Taytum a kid who has a bright future. They are already a super deep team, in the ECF without their two best players, and could get more with a top 5 pick. This would be the worst case scenario as a Sixer fan.
Keep in mind there is also this, based on how Hinkie set this team up. Lets take a look down the road. You will see the genius and why the process is still in the works.
Basically, it breaks down like this, including this year, the Sixers have a boatload of Draft Picks. All set up by Sam Hinkie, all in an effort to create the process. While young talent is cheaper, and controllable for a longer period, there are also many times they don’t pan out. The chance is high, and the reward is not always that great. Over the years, we have seen many can’t miss prospects turn out to be complete busts (ie Greg Oden, Marvin Williams, Michael Olowokandi, an yes even Shawn Bradley.) To be fair, the opposite is also true, there have been players, hall of fame players found in late rounds (ie Tony Parker, Mo Cheeks, Marc Gasol, and Manu Ginoboli). It is possible, to hit on the late rounds. While, rare it has happened. There is a higher percentage of drafting a bust in the first round. More importantly, if we saw anything this year. We are close.
Chance of a draft day trade..
I feel this is pretty high. This feeling stays with me, cause of how close I feel this team is. A proven wing player such as any of the big three, makes this team a legitimate threat in the east. Adding LBJ, would instantly make you the best team in the east, regardless of what Boston does. We lived through the process and after 52 wins and a 3 seed in the playoffs, I am ready to win now. More importantly, at some point, Ben Simmons is no longer going to be on a rookie deal. Joel Embiids contract kicks in next year. So that is quite a good amount of cash to shell out.
In my head, I still feel the brilliant business man Josh Harris, wants to flip this business. He bought it on the cheap for 280+/- million dollars. If he builds a competitive winning product, that competes for titles, he can probably flip it for a cool billion or 2. In 2017, the Rockets were sold for 2.2 billion dollars, and no offense to Houston, Philadelphia is a much bigger market.
Ultimately, at this point, the product and the current status of the team. According to reports the franchise currently is valued at about 1.18 billion dollars. Even that is a killer ROI. The only way I see him holding on to this team, is if he can get his own venue. He has talked about building his own venue in downtown, and being free of the contract with Comcast and Wells Fargo. This is the same guy, who built a state of the art practice facility in Camden, for basically free, and got huge tax breaks, so let’s not discredit his business acumen.
All in all, I think it should be a fun night, and the future of the Sixers is promising. I for one am waiting for July, and Free Agency to kick so we can see how this all pans out. I for one have state, many times, I am excited for the future of this team. Could you imagine, this city if by chance we did get that number 1 pick.
We would be in a frenzy, for the next month. As a town, we would almost forget about the Super Bowl Champion Eagles. Let me not get to carried away. Can you picture it in your head? The number 1 pick, and the best player in the world soon to possibly become a free agent. Oh, the conversations, we could have. My heart tells me, that although there is a chance, we are not that lucky. I hope tomorrow however, I can write about the unthinkable almost impossible.